09/07/2016 / By trumpnews
As bad as August has been for Donald Trump, one thing that must leave him at least a little relieved is his standing in the two most critical swing states: Florida and Ohio.
Article by James Pindell
While recent polls have suggested that some swing states like Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and maybe even North Carolina are slipping away, this has not been the case in Ohio and Florida.
Prior to the Trump collapse this month, Trump was tied with Hillary Clinton in these states. Afterward, he is losing to Clinton in Ohio and Florida, but just within the margin of error. And because he begins television advertising in these two states Friday, Trump could begin to recover soon — and may not have far to go to take the lead.
And, in a twist, Trump’s lack of ground game campaign anywhere helps the argument that, if he put one together, his comeback could be even stronger.
It is not just Ohio and Florida where Trump has seen this dynamic play out. Iowa and Nevada are also very tight contests despite his sinking poll numbers nationally and in other states.
The problem in all of this is that Democrats have a structural advantage in the Electoral College. On top of that, Clinton has not conceded any ground anywhere, except maybe West Virginia. Clinton has so many paths to victory that, as it stands, even if Trump wins Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Iowa, Clinton still will be the next president.
As we head into the final campaign stretch, not all hope is lost for Trump. But to be clear, we are talking about hope, not reality.
James Pindell can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his daily e-mail update on the 2016 campaign at www.bostonglobe.com/groundgame.
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