07/15/2026 / By Mike Adams

Admittedly, I have failed to explain the stakes clearly enough. For months, I have written about fertilizer supply chains, the Haber-Bosch process, and the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. But the gravity of this crisis has not sunk in for most people. Let me put it as plainly as I can: The global population of more than 8 billion people depends on a fragile web of natural gas, oil, and downstream chemistry that took 60+ years to build on this planet. If we lose 25 percent of these critical substances, we lose 25 percent of the population. That is 2 billion people. Here is why that math is inescapable.
As I documented in my article “The Haber-Bosch House of Cards,” the single chemical reaction that fixes nitrogen from the air into fertilizer is responsible for feeding roughly half of humanity [1]. That process requires vast quantities of natural gas. The Persian Gulf region, especially Qatar and Iran, supplies much of that gas. When the Trump administration launched its war on Iran in February 2026 and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, the global fertilizer supply chain began to collapse. This is not a prediction of future famine. The famine is already baked in. But it could still get a whole lot worse depending on how things go from here.
Natural gas from Qatar and the Persian Gulf is not just for heating homes. It is the essential feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizers via the Haber-Bosch process. Without this gas, ammonia production stops. Without ammonia feedstock material for agricultural fertilizers, crops fail. Half of humanity is alive today only because of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. As Sharon Astyk explains in her book “Depletion and Abundance,” our entire food system floats on a sea of oil and natural gas [2]. We have built a civilization that is utterly dependent on these energy-dense inputs.
Then there is sulfuric acid. It is produced as a byproduct of sour crude oil refining and is indispensable for manufacturing phosphate fertilizer. Without oil extraction, no sulfur, no phosphate – no food. The Persian Gulf supplies roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer, and the Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline for both oil and gas shipments. As Lewis Dartnell notes in “Origins,” the narrow straits of Bab-el-Mandeb and Hormuz have been critical chokepoints for trade for millennia [3]. Today, they are the arteries of global food production. Sever them, and you sever the lifeline of billions.
The war began with U.S. airstrikes on Iran after Trump claimed an imminent threat – a decision he later admitted was influenced by Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Pete Hegseth [4]. Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply. Then came the Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field. Iran responded by targeting QatarEnergy’s gas trained, achieving precision strikes. The damage is extensive. Two of QatarEnergy’s gas trains have been destroyed, with repairs estimated at 3 to 5 years – or a decade if Iran retaliates further and damages all 14 gas trains.
The loss of that gas means no nitrogen fertilizer, no affordable aluminum, no derived helium – the entire industrial chain is crippled. A detailed analysis by Craig Tindale, titled “Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis of a Zero-Flow Strait of Hormuz Closure,” shows that the interruption of this one corridor can propagate outward into a general crisis of civilization [5]. Trump’s threats to target Iranian civilian infrastructure risk escalating the destruction to all Persian Gulf states. The system is not just under strain; it is breaking.
Without abundant fertilizer supplies, global food production collapses. For a decade, it will be physically impossible to feed all 8 billion people (only some of them will have access to food, but not all). As I warned in “The 10 Year Famine Is About to Be Unleashed,” the foundation of civilization is one vulnerable facility – the fertilizer supply chain [6]. In a worst-case scenario with extensive infrastructure destruction, the population could shrink from 8 billion to 4 billion or less. This is not hyperbole; it is mathematics. You cannot have half the food and keep all the people.
The coming migration tsunami will reshape the world, as I detailed in my article by that name [7]. Civil unrest, government collapses, and even cannibalism will follow. This is the scale of an asteroid impact, but man-made. The question is not whether mass death will occur, but how many billions will die before the system stabilizes at a lower population.
In summary, Trump is waging war on the entire human race. He and his advisers seemingly have no understanding of the ramifications of their actions. As I wrote in “The Coming Famine,” millions (at minimum) will starve because of a man-made catastrophe [8]. And if the escalation worsens, we could literally be facing the end of the world as we know it.
A year’s supply of food will not help. Only ending this senseless war can prevent billions of deaths.
Demand an end to this madness before we all find ourselves in the crosshairs of global destruction. The stakes have never been higher, and the consequences of inaction are beyond comprehension.

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