The economic fallout from the failed Iran War could lead to a false flag operation under Trump to unify the country before the midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump faces a stark decision in the coming months. With there being little public support for the Iran War, Trump must act in a way that is politically expedient and unifying to get the country to vote Republican and support his efforts going forward. This could lead to the government taking uncharacteristic actions before the midterms or creating false flag scenarios that instill a sense of patriotism in Americans.

As such, Trump says he faces a “big decision” on Iran, and the way he frames it shows that few good options remain. Seven months after he advertised a swift war, he is weighing whether to escalate that same war, one that voters increasingly oppose, one that Gulf allies fear, and one that his own party quietly avoids discussion about. With control of Congress on the ballot Nov. 3, it will be the political calendar, not the battlefield, that steers the decisions coming from the commander in chief, the Pentagon, and the CIA.

Key points:

• Trump told Axios on Sept. 17 that he is approaching a decision on whether to “annihilate” the Iranian regime, days before meeting six Gulf states at the U.N. General Assembly.
• The U.S. and Israel launched the war at the end of February, and formal talks have not occurred since a memorandum collapsed in June.
• About two-thirds of likely voters oppose the war. Democrats lead the generic ballot by nearly 9 points in one recent poll.
• Gasoline averages $4.43 a gallon, up from $3.20 a year ago.
• Iranian retaliation hit U.S. bases across the Gulf, and their future is now uncertain.
• Impeachment articles have been filed against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, most recently by a Republican congressman.

A war sold as swift, now a stalemate

When the United States and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, the opening blows killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Tehran answered with missiles and drones across the region. Trump soon declared the operation well ahead of an initial four- to five-week estimate. What followed was a grinding cycle of retaliation, a mid-June memorandum that briefly promised peace, and its collapse. Formal negotiations have not resumed since.

The economic bill arrived on schedule. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman, and traffic there remains below pre-war levels despite a U.S. push to reopen it. Gasoline now averages $4.43 a gallon, compared with $3.20 a year ago, and crude has climbed above $100 a barrel. Trump has dismissed the pain as a small price for security, a sales pitch the polls suggest is not registering with most Americans.

Crude oil passes $100 per barrel as Iran war widens

Control has slipped in other ways. Iranian strikes hit American forces at airbases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and at the Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain. NPR reports the future of those bases remains uncertain, in part because host nations absorbed thousands of Iranian missiles and drones after American troops launched attacks from their soil. Qatar has since said Gulf countries cannot rely on the United States alone for security.

That erosion of leverage now shapes the president’s calendar, and the need to be seen as the victor. Axios reports Trump held off on resuming major combat in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar voiced fear that Iran would bomb Saudi energy facilities. Before choosing escalation, he needs the buy-in of six Gulf states meeting him at the United Nations. “Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?” Trump told Axios.

The midterm bill comes due

Polling cited by The Washington Times found 66% of likely voters oppose the war, including 77% of independents and 24% of Trump’s 2024 backers. NBC News reported that only 31% approve of his handling of it, and that Democrats lead the generic ballot by nearly 9 points. Some Republicans have already joined Democrats in demanding congressional authorization for further military action, while Rep. Nancy Mace predicted a “bloodbath.”

History offers a warning here. In 2006, voters exhausted by the Iraq War handed Democrats both chambers of Congress, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resigned the next day. Trump’s own coalition is fraying as well. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, along with commentators Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, has accused the administration of putting Israeli interests ahead of American ones, and Greene insists the movement means America first, “not Israel first.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks that Israel’s plans influenced American involvement fed that anger.

Major false flag incoming to avoid accountability for a failed war?

Accountability may follow with the ballots cast in November of 2026. Democrats filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in April, citing an unauthorized war and civilian casualties, and NOTUS reported he would likely remain a target if Democrats win the House. This week, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky filed articles of his own, accusing Hegseth of prolonging combat after Congress voted to end it. The Pentagon dismissed the earlier effort, saying the Department of War “decisively and overwhelmingly achieved” the president’s objectives.

But what really matters is how the economic fallout is affecting Americans. The American people are dealing with higher costs of living and a dollar that is rapidly losing value. The dollar caught a safe-haven bid when the war began, yet a Reuters poll of currency strategists found they expect that rebound to fade, and Morningstar analysts say a widening deficit could weaken the currency further if the fighting ever ends. The conflict has also stoked inflation fears and upended the global interest rate outlook, with diesel and gas prices hitting levels that will make going to work and buying groceries an indebting affair for many families.

All these compounding factors leave Trump with a perilous temptation. Political fear has a way of dressing recklessness as resolve, and a dramatic strike could be marketed as a patriotic pursuit. A terrorist attack on US soil could rally people behind Trump and a strong Republican leadership going into next year.

By Trump’s own admission, anything could happen. Annihilation is not off the table. Voters, meanwhile, appear to have rendered their verdict already. Does Trump need a major false flag to rally the country behind his leadership? How far will the Pentagon go to save face here?

Sources include:

SputnikGlobe.com

Axios.com

TheHill.com

WashingtonTimes.com